Findings

The findings of the Over-Ager Analysis are based on the data collection methods from the 'Over-Ager Project' page. Once this data was collected, I found that 289 games was the magic number that would be used throughout the analysis. While looking at all of the draft picks between 2003-2013, the goal was to find all successful draft picks. Once the total number of successful draft picks was collected, they were divided into 1st-Year Eligible draftees and Over-Age draftees. Then, comparisons were made with a number of different variables to analyze if over-agers are more valuable to pick between rounds 3-7 of the NHL draft.

Do Over-Age Draftees Succeed More Than 1st-Year Eligible Players?

To simply answer this question, YES! After compiling all of the successful over-age draftees between rounds 3-7 from the 2003-2013 NHL drafts, I found that there were 72 picks that reached ≥ 289 games played out of 500 drafted players. This results in a success rate of 14.40%.

In comparison, the sum of all 1st-year eligible players who were considered successful draft picks between rounds 3-7 from the 2003-2013 NHL draft was 117 picks that reached ≥ 289 games played out of 1189 drafted players. This results in a success rate of 9.84%.

Conclusion

When comparing the success rates of Over-Agers vs. 1st-Year Eligible draftees, I found that there is a 1.5 greater chance of having a successful Over-Age Draft Pick Between Rounds 3-7. This means that for every 2 1st-year eligible draftees between rounds 3-7 who reach the 289 game mark, there will be 3 over-age draftees between rounds 3-7 who reach the 289 game mark. It also shows that there should be a larger frequency of over-agers taken in the NHL draft.

Why is this Significant?

Other Findings

Counts and Averages

2500 Drafted Players Between 2003-2013
- 1889 1st Year Eligible Draftees (76%)
- 611 Over-Ager Draftees (24%)

As expected, the majority of players drafted were 1st-year eligible with less than 1/4 of the draft picks being over-agers.

Frequency of 1st Years vs. Over-Agers by Round

Across each round, we see the distribution of first-year eligible drafted players vs. the over-aged drafted players.

This graph shows us that Over-Ager drafted players are drafted at the highest frequency in the 7th round of the NHL draft.

Success Rate by Position

This graph shows the success rate of over-agers and 1st-year eligible draftees based on position.

For every position, over-agers do better than 1st-year eligible draftees, BUT the best position to draft over-agers is defencemen at just below a 16% success rate. Defencemen also carry the greatest success rate difference with over a 6% greater chance of drafted success.

Success Rate by Round Between 2003-2013 Drafts

This graph shows the success rate of 1st-year eligible and over-ager draftees by round across the 2003-2013 NHL drafts between rounds 3-7.

Looking at rounds 3-7 specifically, over-agers tend to do better at every round, with the greatest disparities in success rate between rounds 3, 4, and 7.

Success Rate Between Round 3-7 by Draft Year

This graph encapsulates the success rate of 1st-year and over-ager draftees between rounds 3-7 across each individual NHL draft between 2003-2013.

Over-agers had a greater success rate between rounds 3-7 in 7 of the 11 NHL drafts, highlighted by the 2004 and 2009 drafts with success rates twice as large as the mean success rate of 14..40%.

There is also an interesting pattern present with success rates increasing year over year, then reaching a peak with a steep drop-off. For example. Looking at the over-ager success rate between the 2005-2010 NHL drafts, you see a steady increase which peaks at the 2009 draft, followed by a significant drop off at the 2010 NHL draft (the lowest success rate for all over-agers across the 11 drafts).

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